Josh Emmett returns Saturday to a featherweight panorama vastly completely different from after we final noticed him.
It’s been 16 months since Emmett’s vicious knockout of Bryce Mitchell, a end that stored Emmett’s identify firmly within the contenders’ circle. Since then, Ilia Topuria—the person who most not too long ago defeated Emmett—conquered the featherweight division with virtuoso performances towards Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway after which introduced his intentions to go away the division to chase gold at 155 kilos.
Lengthy story quick: At 40, Emmett isn’t as removed from a UFC title shot because it appears.
That’s, until you’re assured Lerone Murphy beats him in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 105 essential occasion. Murphy—presently No. 13 at 145 kilos within the MMA Preventing International Rankings, three spots behind No. 10 Emmett—has been the sleeper of the featherweight division, with an undefeated report in eight octagon appearances and an growing quantity of high quality wins. He may not have the field workplace sizzle the higher-ups at TKO are on the lookout for, however one other win ought to give Murphy an hermetic case for a future title shot.
The remainder of Saturday’s card is the now-expected smorgasbord of veterans and up to date Contender Collection signings, so let’s see what we are able to sit up for and probably study from this weekend’s opponents.
What: UFC Vegas 105
The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, April 5. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, adopted by a six-fight essential card at 9 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN and ESPN+.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
Is that victory horns I hear?
That’s proper, final week I broke my 2025 streak of incorrect essential occasion predictions with my daring choose of two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno over Steve Erceg. So proud.
Now it’s time to go streaking and I’m feeling assured leaning in the direction of Lerone Murphy tonight. Just a few occasions this 12 months I’ve erred by going with the extra skilled fighter (Israel Adesanya, Henry Cejudo, Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz) or a fighter to repeat their success in a rematch (Amanda Ribas, Marvin Vettori). Basically, I’ve failed to acknowledge a sea change on the applicable time.
Murphy is closely favored to beat Josh Emmett and for good purpose. He’s sturdy offensively, adequate defensively (extra on this later), and, frankly, lots much less shopworn than Emmett. By advantage of being seven years Emmett’s junior, you may tick off a bunch of packing containers in Murphy’s favor.
Emmett is saying all the best issues about voluntarily taking a break from motion to rejuvenate himself, which is sensible at this stage of his profession. However the recreation isn’t all the time variety to fighters who take their time and I don’t know if what Emmett gained in relaxation and recuperation could make up for athletic decay. Even when he nonetheless hits like a sledgehammer.
Make no mistake, that’s nonetheless a significant factor as Murphy’s chin has been cracked every so often. That’s not one thing you want to listen to whenever you’re selecting somebody to beat Emmett. One improper transfer and Murphy might be waking up again in Manchester questioning the place his weekend disappeared to. However I like him to outwork Emmett on the ft for 5 rounds and win a choice.
Decide: Murphy
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
Now this matchup has some upset potential.
Scorching on the ft, not dangerous on the bottom, Joanderson Brito appears to get again within the win column after a irritating cut up choice loss to William Gomis. He received’t have to fret a few lack of motion right here as Pat Sabatini will meet him head on, it simply may not be the place Brito prefers the struggle to happen.
Truly, let’s rephrase that. It may not be the place Brito ought to favor the struggle to happen. Brito has proven previously he’s unafraid to check his opponent’s grappling chops, which may very well be his downfall right here. Sabatini is extra harmful on the mat and even when Brito can keep away from submissions and important injury, Sabatini can have no challenge taking part in it secure and holding him down.
This can be a stylistic chess match, one that would simply finish with Brito crowning Sabatini with a crushing mixture. I’m going with the grappler, although, so search for Sabatini to floor Brito early and sometimes and take away his choices en path to a choice victory.
Decide: Sabatini
Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee
Finger of disgrace to Cortavious Romious for not even coming shut to creating weight. Come on!
That gaffe is one purpose I’m leaning in the direction of Chang Ho Lee. Admittedly, Lee didn’t blow the doorways off in his Street to UFC finals win, however he confirmed a grittiness that can serve him nicely towards the decrease tier of the bantamweight division. Successful ugly might be simply as a lot of a ability as profitable fairly.
Particularly, Lee’s willingness to scrap within the clinch will serve him nicely. Romious has potential, however proper now he has a simple fashion that revolves round fast placing bursts and takedown makes an attempt with little setup. That ought to end in loads of combating alongside the cage, the place I like Lee to put on Romious down. Because the bout progresses and Romious realizes Lee will not be wilting, the tide will slowly flip within the South Korean fighter’s favor.
I’m not selecting Lee to win any bonuses anytime quickly, however I feel he outlasts Romious on this evening.
Decide: Lee
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares doesn’t lose by submission. Gerald Meerschaert by no means wins by choice and 11 of his UFC wins have come by means of submission. Straightforward choose for me.
“GM3” forcing a faucet from Tavares would actually be some of the stunning outcomes of the 12 months and it’s not out of the realm of risk. Tavares has been round eternally and for those who struggle for lengthy sufficient, ultimately you’re going to get caught. There’s no disgrace if that occurs towards Meerschaert, who’s trying to find submission victory No. 30.
However I can’t see Meerschaert taking Tavares down with a lot effectiveness, even when the Hawaiian veteran’s wrestling protection has proven noticeable cracks not too long ago. This can be a basic middleweighty-y middleweight bout and which means three rounds of methodical, technical, and principally low affect placing.
And Tavares is the grasp of these varieties of fights.
Decide: Tavares
Ode Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne is a cultured veteran, well-rounded sufficient to place anybody within the division on discover, however lacking that one thing particular to separate himself from the pack. I point out this as a result of latest Contender Collection signing Luis Gurule ought to win this, even when he’s in for a troublesome struggle.
Gurule has loads of swagger in his step. He’s gentle on his ft and he retains his proper hand cocked as he appears to counter when his opponent leaves a gap. He’s not afraid to get in shut and get soiled both, so we’ll see how Osbourne reacts when Gurule ramps up the strain.
There’s additionally loads of junk in Gurule’s recreation, which is to say he’ll make the most of unorthodox motion to interrupt Osbourne’s rhythm. It’s a tough puzzle to unravel and I’m curious how Osbourne will react if he can’t discover alternatives to attain early.
Gurule tasks as a stable addition to the flyweight roster with high 20 potential, however it’s additionally simply as seemingly he finally ends up filling the Osbourne function down the highway. Both manner, I’ll take him by choice in his UFC debut.
Decide: Gurule
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin
That is the best matchup for Torrez Finney after grinding his manner by way of three Contender Collection appearances to earn a UFC contract. However dig into the tape and also you’ll see he has weaknesses Robert Valentin can exploit.
First off, now we have to say the peak distinction. At 6-foot-2, Finney has six inches of top on the stout and muscular Torrez, and that’s a discrepancy Torrez has needed to cope with all through his profession. Although he’s fared nicely thus far, he’s all the time in danger to soak up injury as he works to shut distance.
When Torrez will get his fingers on his opponents, he normally takes them for a trip earlier than giving them hell from high place. The place I fear for “The Punisher” is his submission protection. Valentin is aware of his manner round a maintain or two, so he’ll consistently be threatening if Torrez takes too many dangers on the bottom. And that’s a definite risk given Torrez’s eagerness to on placed on a present.
Let’s put a pin on the upset discuss for now as I nonetheless assume Finney’s wrestling method and uncooked energy are an excessive amount of for Valentin to beat, however ultimately one among these taller middleweights are going to knock him down a peg.
Decide: Finney
Preliminaries
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita
Rhys McKee def. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao
Martin Buday def. Uran Satybaldiev
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos