UFC mailbag: Has Mackenzie Dern turned a corner? Plus, looking ahead to UFC 311

The primary UFC occasion of 2025 came about this previous weekend when UFC Vegas 101 went down on this planet’s most well-known APEX. Although the cardboard was a wee bit maligned heading into the weekend, UFC Vegas 101 ended up being a reasonably enjoyable time, and some notable issues occurred, together with Mackenzie Dern getting her revenge on Amanda Ribas with a third-round armbar victory.

So, let’s speak about UFC Vegas 101 yet another time earlier than turning our eye to the sensational UFC 311 card which takes place this upcoming weekend.

Mackenzie Dern

“Feels just like the Mackenzie Dern Bandwagon is perhaps one battle from a title shot? Who will get her there? I do know her and Virna Jandiroba fought as soon as but it surely was like 5 years in the past. Looks as if a stable No. 1 contender battle.”

That’s proper it’s, child! All of us Dern truthers are lastly having our second! Certain, we lose A LOT earlier than then, however that doesn’t matter! We weren’t incorrect, simply early!

Regardless of mountains of proof calling me a moron, I’ve steadfastly believed that Mackenzie Dern might be a reputable title risk if she might simply get her act collectively. In spite of everything, the lady has a brilliant energy, and that makes her extraordinarily harmful in opposition to anybody, even when she saved getting beat. And whereas nobody ought to go spiking the soccer simply but, I do suppose Saturday confirmed us that Dern is lastly beginning to enhance.

My largest criticism of Dern is just not that she’s a nasty wrestler — she is, however whereas that’s dangerous and annoying, it’s not the deadly flaw. My largest difficulty is that Dern merely isn’t imply sufficient. Regardless of being a nasty wrestler, she fairly recurrently finds herself on the bottom and in high place. However from there, too typically Dern tries to Demian Maia her method into a mild submission. Sometimes that’s labored, however in opposition to the most effective on this planet it hasn’t. So as an alternative of looking for a submission endlessly, I need Dern to start out punishing fighters with punches and elbows, after which chase the submission. And we noticed a few of that in opposition to Ribas!

Dern is an effective athlete with an elite ability, however has lots of basic flaws that most likely prohibit her from ever successful a title. But when she will be able to construct on this, and easily be slightly extra ruthless within the cage, I imagine she’ll go from being a High 10 strawweight to a High 5 one.

As for the way she will get to a title battle, I peered into my crystal ball and the trail was fairly clear: Tatiana Suarez beats Zhang Weili of their upcoming battle, and the UFC books a direct rematch. Jandiroba now must battle in opposition to to remain energetic and the UFC books the rematch between Jandiroba and Dern for a similar card as Suarez-Zhang 2, simply in case somebody falls out.

I see these items.

Dern continued

“Does Mackenzie Dern have an opportunity of sneaking right into a title battle if Tatiana pulls out at brief discover?”

An opportunity? Certain. Possible? In no way.

For the previous few years now the most effective skill in MMA has been availability, so if I’m in Dern’s nook, I’m telling her to remain sharp, simply in case. However, god forbid, Suarez is compelled out of the UFC 312 title battle with Zhang (given her historical past, truthful to fret about) then Jandiroba would be the first particular person the UFC calls. But when Jandiroba can’t or received’t for some purpose, Dern might be second in line proper now, so there’s positively an opportunity, even when it’s small.

Chris Curtis

“Was Chris Curtis unjustly denied a choice?

“A call both option to be clear.”

I feel it’s fairly inarguable that yeah, referee Mark Smith screwed the pooch on this one.

In case you missed it, Roman Kopylov stopped Chris Curtis with a walk-off head kick this previous Saturday, with simply seconds remaining within the battle. Besides once you say it like that, it looks like Curtis obtained slabbed up, which isn’t what occurred. The pinnacle kick clearly rocked Curtis who stumbled and fell, however Mark Smith regarded like he solely actually jumped in as a result of Kopylov walked it off. Make no mistake, Curtis was in a nasty method, however he wasn’t out, and we’ve seen loads of fighters recuperate from comparable circumstances. This was an occasion of Kopylov enjoying the sport and forcing the referee to make a name. Mark Smith selected poorly.

Happily, although Smith positively tousled, it’s a type of errors we’ll rapidly overlook about as a result of it didn’t change the general consequence. Kopylov and Curtis have been tied up on the judges’ scorecards, and it appears fairly clear that with the knockdown, Kopylov would have received the third spherical and a choice, had it gone there. I’m certain that’s little consolation to Curtis who now has a KO loss on his report, however it’s the info.

Islam Makhachev

“Do you suppose with a win at 311, Islam Makhachev is given the nod to leap to welterweight and problem both Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov?”

Sure. If Islam Makhachev beats Arman Tsarukyan in the principle occasion of UFC 311, I imagine he’ll get a welterweight title shot subsequent.

Assuming Makhachev wins on Saturday, he may have victories over 4 of the highest 6 contenders within the light-weight division (Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway are the outliers, each of whom misplaced their final fights). Who would he face subsequent at light-weight? In a world the place champions not often clear out their weight divisions, Makhachev has achieved a reasonably good job at light-weight proper now. Certain, the winner of Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano can be high quality, or I suppose a rematch with Charles Oliveira, however are these actually fights that he or followers are that enthusiastic about?

On high of that, a win on Saturday makes Makhachev essentially the most completed light-weight in UFC historical past, with 4 profitable title defenses. While you think about his spot atop the pound-for-pound rankings, this can be a man who most likely does deserve an opportunity at seizing a second title.

The query for me is just not “Will he get the chance?” however “Will Belal lose?” Belal Muhammad and Islam prepare collectively (not on a regular basis however sufficient now) and so they don’t appear significantly inclined to battle one another. If Muhammad efficiently defends his title in opposition to Shavkat Rakhmonov, will Makhachev say eff it and check out anyway?

My intestine says no, however I additionally suppose it’s a moot level. I imagine Rakhmonov beats Muhammad after they battle, and although there’s some historical past between Rakhmonov and the Nurmagomedov gymnasium, I don’t suppose that might prohibit the battle. And given the relative dearth of simple challengers in each weight divisions, I feel we’re heading to champ-champ battle earlier than the top of the 12 months.

UFC 311 fast hits

“1. Are you in any respect involved that Umar Nurmagomedov is way from 100% wholesome (the lately damaged arm)?

“2. Favourite 311 track and any tales from seeing them play reside?

“3. Who you bought for Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder, Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, and which battle will you incorporate the subsequent step of “The Climb” with?”

This weekend’s card is fairly stacked (a minimum of the principle card definitely is) so let’s run down a number of of those earlier than we shut up store.

1. Marginally? For individuals who don’t know, Umar allegedly had a difficulty together with his arm that meant he couldn’t battle in December, however now that’s apparently not the case. Truthfully, it’s laborious to know what’s true and what’s nonsense with regard to the arm saga at this level.

It’s solely potential that Umar did have a lingering arm difficulty however a title shot is a title shot and this one comes with Islam on the identical card. Alternatively, it’s simply as potential that his arm difficulty was simply not 100% a number of months in the past and now it’s high quality and that is additionally some ploy. In conditions like this, I defer to what the fighter is telling us as true, as a result of whether or not or not it’s, Umar is preventing Saturday, and in case you conform to battle, then you definitely come as you might be.

2. I’ve by no means seen 311 reside, so I hope I didn’t unfold that lie someplace. I like 311 simply high quality, however I solely personal one album of theirs (From Chaos). If I’m listening to reggae rock, I’m going with Pepper or Chic over 311 (although 311 beats out Barely Stoopid, I feel). However my favourite and their greatest track is Amber, however I’ll Be Right here Awhile additionally rips.

3. I’ll clearly supporting my boy Reiner de Ridder AKA The Dutch Knight AKA Henny Cognac as he takes on Kevin Holland. That battle goes to be impossibly foolish. Equally, there are few individuals who love Jiri Prochazka greater than I do, so I’ll be rooting for my giant fool violence king with the identical reckless abandon he fist fights with.

As for The Climb, no concept. Examine No Bets Barred when it drops later this week.

Thanks for studying and due to everybody who despatched in tweets (Xs?)! Do you could have any burning questions on issues a minimum of considerably associated to fight sports activities? You then’re in luck as a result of you’ll be able to ship your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I’ll reply my favourite ones! It doesn’t matter in the event that they’re topical or insane, simply as long as they’re good. Thanks once more, and see y’all subsequent week.