Alexander Volkanovski has been right here earlier than, however the circumstances are uncommon to say the least.
Clearly, Volkanovski is accustomed to large moments. “The Nice” has fought in nothing however championship bouts since 2019 and on Saturday he does so once more when he fights Diego Lopes for a vacant featherweight title in the principle occasion of UFC 314. It’s the identical title Volkanovski held and efficiently defended for 5 years and that’s up for grabs as soon as extra with soon-to-be former champion Ilia Topuria leaving the division in quest of light-weight glory.
However he’s by no means fought for a title coming off of a 14-month layoff. And coming off of two devastating knockout losses. Right here’s the record of fighters to win an undisputed UFC title on a two-fight dropping streak:
It feels extremely bizarre declaring the deck is stacked towards top-of-the-line fighters ever – particularly when most oddsmakers have him barely favored – however that is about as tall a mountain as Volkanovski has ever needed to climb.
Lopes is a worthy challenger, having made it to the UFC the exhausting method and endeared himself to followers and matchmakers together with his anybody, anyplace angle. He debuted by placing a scare within the undefeated Movsar Evloev and has since gained 5 straight, establishing himself as a recent face that additionally has loads of high-level expertise.
Will the conclusion of Lopes’ championship journey additionally sign the tip of Volkanovski’s storied profession?
Additionally on the principle card, Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett meet in a five-round light-weight co-main occasion, Yair Rodriguez welcomes multiple-time Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull to the octagon, Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva conflict after a wild build-up, and Nikita Krylov returns from a two-year hiatus to face the resurgent Dominick Reyes.
What: UFC 314
The place: Kaseya Heart in Miami
When: Saturday, April 12. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight predominant card begins at 10 p.m. ET completely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing within the MMA Preventing International Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alexander Volkanovski (2, P4P-T13) vs. Diego Lopes (5)
Ability for talent, Alexander Volkanovski remains to be pretty much as good because it will get.
Elite boxing? Verify. Rock-solid wrestling? Verify. Hermetic grappling? Verify. Knowledgeable clinch work? Verify. Even at 36 years younger, he can do all of it. The primary battle with Islam Makhachev confirmed how excessive a degree he can attain and earlier than he was caught by Ilia Topuria, Volkanovski seemed like he was nonetheless able to go a tough 5 rounds with “La Leyenda.”
However there’s additionally the second battle with Makhachev to think about. And the truth that he was caught by Topuria in any respect. Volkanovski has taken a 12 months off to get better, which may solely assist, however how a lot? It’s not simply the mileage, it’s the tough terrain Volkanovski has navigated all through his UFC profession. Sooner or later, you lose a step, and whenever you do, there’s a dozen hungry fighters trying to take a step forward of you.
Enter Diego Lopes.
The hardened Lopes didn’t take the attractive path to his championship alternative. He’s not an undefeated blue-chip prospect, he’s not coming off a string of highlight-reel knockouts, he’s not going to battle on the microphone to power the matchmakers’ arms. It took him 9 years to get a glance on Dana White’s Contender Collection. Then he misplaced and it was proper again to the drafting board.
Lopes’ greatest skill has arguably been availability, however don’t low cost what he can do within the cage. He’s an excellent striker and an excellent grappler, greater than expert sufficient in each departments to problem even a main Volkanovski. Or beat this model.
I’m choosing Lopes. The 170-pound weight class and beneath isn’t type to fighters 35 and up, particularly warriors like Volkanovski who’ve left all of it within the cage throughout a number of continents. Lopes won’t have the hanging to place Volkanovski down for good, however he’ll knock him down early, setting the tone for the remainder of a aggressive battle.
Wherever Volkanovski goes after this one, it gained’t be as featherweight champion.
Choose: Lopes
Michael Chandler (14) vs. Paddy Pimblett
I predicted – nay, manifested this battle to occur on an episode of On To the Subsequent One a while in the past, and I’m not apologizing for it. I’m additionally not apologizing for choosing Paddy Pimblett to take Michael Chandler’s spot within the rankings.
Chandler’s UFC run has been memorable to say the least as he’s in some way managed to realize recognition and proceed reserving fights towards the highest names within the light-weight division regardless of not, , successful a lot? It’s comprehensible in case you’ve watched his fights, that are at all times compelling a technique or one other, and he nonetheless has quite a lot of that former Bellator star cachet. Nevertheless, in some unspecified time in the future he has to drop a notch within the estimation of the matchmakers. A loss to Pimblett ought to do it.
Pimblett’s harmful grappling is all he must cope with Chandler, a very good offensive wrestler that has by no means been nice at avoiding takedowns. “Iron Mike” is more than pleased to scramble and energy his method out of hazard, a lot to the leisure of the followers and his personal detriment. He’s going to be carrying Pimblett like a backpack for a lot of this battle and even with 5 rounds to work with, that would price him on the scorecards.
The 5 rounds make this intriguing as Chandler has a deep fuel tank and the Florida crowd might push him to an brisk ultimate lap if Pimblett can’t put him away early (which I doubt he can). Pimblett must financial institution at the very least three of the primary 4 rounds as a result of if it’s a toss-up going into the fifth, Chandler goes to boost hell and push a tempo Pimblett can’t match.
That stated, I’ve Pimblett doing what he must be up on the scorecards and surviving the final 5 minutes of the battle. The outcome needs to be an actual folks pleaser throughout as Pimblett followers could have one other large win to rejoice and Pimblett haters could have greater than sufficient fodder with which to poke holes within the end result.
Choose: Pimblett
Yair Rodriguez (8) vs. Patricio Pitbull (9)
My coronary heart stated Patricio Pitbull when this battle was introduced, however the mind has come round to Yair Rodriguez.
The primary issue one has to think about is high quality of opposition. With respect to the stable Bellator featherweight division, it’s not a radical take to say Rodriguez’s UFC opponents have been of an objectively greater caliber. I’ve at all times been of the opinion Pitbull would have been a prime 5 UFC featherweight in his prime, however that’s theoretical. Rodriguez has really walked that stroll.
Then there’s the sheer dimension benefit Rodriguez has. We’re not simply speaking about arm attain both. Rodriguez’s deadly kicks are a nightmare for Pitbull and whereas I belief Pitbull to combine in takedowns if alternatives are introduced, he’s going to eat quite a lot of ft and knees earlier than he can dig in.
If I have been to present Pitbull an edge in something, it may be hand velocity, however even there Rodriguez isn’t any slouch. He’s only a nightmare matchup for Pitbull, an absolute gamer that may give his all for 3 rounds in pursuit of his UFC championship dream.
It simply gained’t be sufficient.
Choose: Rodriguez
Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell
From the second this matchup was booked, Jean Silva by knockout was the plain prediction. So apparent, I see no motive to deviate from it.
That is undoubtedly a winnable matchup for Bryce Mitchell, given his wonderful grappling and aggressive type. Placing a fighter like Silva on the again foot may very well be precisely what’s wanted to defuse his explosive hanging. So you’ll be able to perceive why Mitchell was fast to just accept the chance to derail the hype practice of one of many Preventing Nerds’ most promising representatives.
Silva’s velocity would be the distinction right here, although. He’s fast on his ft and has proven he can defend takedowns and stand up when he’s placed on his again. His grappling protection needs to be on level, however Mitchell isn’t going to have a simple time of it if he takes a one-dimensional method to neutralizing Silva.
I’m not assured Mitchell can keep away from Silva’s punches for 3 rounds, even when he has some success slowing him down at first. A knockout feels inevitable.
Choose: Silva
Nikita Krylov (9) vs. Dominick Reyes (15)
Dominick Reyes on a win streak? What 12 months is that this???
Your eyes don’t deceive you. Reyes has strung collectively consecutive victories for the primary time since 2019 and he seems to be each rejuvenated and freed from the expectations that weighed him down for thus lengthy after being “that man who virtually beat Jon Jones.” Respectfully, his comeback has in all probability been helped by the truth that his previous two opponents are older than him, however hey, wins are wins!
Krylov, regardless of having significantly extra expertise, is in some way youthful than Reyes. He’s additionally been out of motion for 2 years. That is only a bizarre matchup and but a becoming one given their present rankings and streaks (Krylov has gained three straight! When did that occur?)
Reyes’ athleticism and agility gave him a leg up on the competitors early in his profession and he’s as spry as ever. He’ll should be defensively sound right here as a result of Krylov will look to shut the space and create as many clashes as attainable, with the hopes of stopping Reyes from discovering any type of rhythm.
Anticipate this battle to be all types of junky for so long as it lasts, with Reyes finally discovering an angle from which to crack Krylov and lay him out.
Choose: Reyes
Preliminaries
Dan Ige def. Sean Woodson
Virna Jandiroba (5, P4P-18) def. Yan Xiaonan (3, P4P-11)
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller
Julian Erosa def. Darren Elkins
Michal Oleksiejczuk def. Sedriques Dumas
Mitch Raposo def. Sumudaerji
Marco Tulio def. Tresean Gore
Nora Cornolle def. Hailey Cowan