Six Nations: England in Q4 crisis? Wales to get wooden spoon?

The 2025 Six Nations started with a bang as France routed Wales, an injury-hit Scotland defeated Italy and Eire got here from behind to down England in acquainted trend.

There’s loads of meals for thought, however are these reactions irrational or respectable? ESPN’s Tom Hamilton and James Regan weigh in.

Leap to:

England | Eire | Wales
Scotland | France | Italy

England’s closing quarter concern is at disaster stage

Eire got here from behind to beat England 27-22 in Dublin, starting their quest for a third-straight Six Nations title with a bonus-point victory. For England, it was one other second-half collapse, however are these late errors now resembling an emergency?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The gamers are adamant they’re on the verge of reversing this pattern, however the stats and patterns say in any other case. No matter England are doing within the closing quarter shouldn’t be working. It’s a painfully acquainted state of affairs: England forward in and across the hour mark earlier than the match ebbs away. There are far too many sliding doorways moments for this group, the place they discover themselves slipping down the precipice of a 60-minute meltdown.

It occurred in opposition to France final 12 months within the closing match of the 2024 Six Nations: Within the 79th minute, England had been 31-30 up. Ben Earl gave away a no-arms penalty, and Thomas Ramos slotted the penalty to win the match 33-31. It occurred of their two Checks in opposition to New Zealand in July: Marcus Smith missed three kicks at objective in Dunedin whereas England led 15-13 till the sixty fifth minute when Damian McKenzie slotted a penalty to offer the All Blacks a 16-15 win. Every week later in Auckland, England had been forward by 4 factors till the 61st minute and misplaced 24-17.

Come November, they missed a late penalty and drop-goal in opposition to New Zealand at Twickenham and fell 24-22. Australia scored after the buzzer to win that Check 42-37. Towards the Springboks, England had 5 lineouts in South Africa’s 22 within the closing quarter and did not return a single level – they fell 29-20. After which got here Eire – England led 10-5 at half time, however then shipped 22 unanswered factors to enter the ultimate 5 minutes 27-10 down, solely to claw their means again to 27-22.

There is a theme right here. Their potential to seek out the entrance foot within the closing quarter is at disaster ranges.

Forward of Eire, England modified issues up, choosing an 80-minute captain in Maro Itoje and loading their bench with large hitters. However it was the identical story. England’s foothold slipped within the 52nd minute as Bundee Aki crashed by way of Smith, after which within the sixty fourth minute, James Lowe darted by way of a big hole in England’s midfield to place Tadhg Beirne over. A Dan Sheehan attempt later, and it was recreation over.

England’s bench affect was negligible, and England had been left choosing by way of the rubble of yet one more defeat to seek out some positives. — Tom Hamilton

Eire on the right track for 3 titles in a row

No group within the 142-year historical past of the championship has received three outright titles in three years. Eire, after combating again to beat England, at the moment are 4 video games away from finishing that feat … Can they do it?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It already appears to be like just like the Spherical 4 match between Eire and France on the Aviva Stadium in Dublin will resolve the place this title goes.

Sure, the Six Nations is a splendidly unpredictable beast, and that is why we find it irresistible, however Eire can be favourites for his or her journey to Murrayfield subsequent weekend and for his or her date with Wales in Cardiff in Spherical 3. France will fancy their probabilities in opposition to England and it might take the best Italian efficiency in residing reminiscence to cease them of their following conflict in Rome

All eyes can be on Dublin on March 8 the place Eire can be possible favourites.

They’re reluctant to speak up their probabilities in Eire, conscious there’s an terrible lot of water nonetheless to cross beneath the bridge on this championship, however the group we noticed on Saturday was comfy in their very own pores and skin, and there was an inevitability about the way in which they performed: they had been affected person and completely satisfied to attend for probabilities to come up to snap the match and twist England into defeat.

The energy of their bench swung the match again of their favour, and when you could have Dan Sheehan, Jack Conan and Robbie Henshaw all approaching, the opposition should sink a bit of additional into their already exhausted limbs.

Eire are favourites to develop into the primary group to win a males’s Six Nations title outright for a 3rd time in a row, however it might be silly to write down off France. — Hamilton

Wales are destined for the wood spoon

Wales entered this Six Nations seeking to finish a file 12-match dropping streak that stretches again to the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Their first recreation, in opposition to France, could not have gone a lot worse. They failed to attain a degree in Paris in a damning 43-0 defeat. Welsh followers have to be fearing the worst from right here, however are they proper to take action?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Dan Biggar is correct. The previous Wales and British & Irish Lions fly-half was on pundit obligation on Friday night, watching Wales’ 43-0 defeat to France and mentioned afterwards: “For me, this recreation subsequent week is the largest in Welsh rugby for the final 15 or 20 years. I am not saying that light-heartedly. It is an enormous, big match.”

With Wales on a 13-match dropping run, and having equalled their worst-ever file within the championship of seven straight defeats, Wales head to Rome seeking to restore some face.

Warren Gatland would not be drawn on the magnitude of it on a private stage. “It is a vital recreation for Wales, it’s not about the place it ranks for me,” he mentioned. “Subsequent week turns into fairly essential for us. We won’t cover away from that. We have to get the monkey off our again.”

Towards France, Wales performed with immense spirit however merely did not have the facility to hassle Les Bleus‘ defence. They seemed an improved outfit with Liam Williams and Josh Adams again, however the accidents to Owen Watkin and Aaron Wainwright are a blow Gatland can unwell afford. The 43-0 defeat would’ve been powerful to abdomen.

However there’s nonetheless a bit to play out on this championship.

You’re feeling Wales will click on at some juncture, they merely should. Gatland relishes their underdog standing and should discover a option to flip their siege mentality into outcomes.

They’re going to hope to have Taulupe Faletau again in opposition to Italy however it should want a Gatland masterclass to get them again to successful methods in Rome. Italy will fancy their probabilities and can welcome Wales as favourites. Italy performed effectively in spells in opposition to Scotland however didn’t win the bodily battles. Wales will look to out-muscle them on Saturday and can look to one way or the other flip desperation into victory. — Hamilton

France will win a Grand Slam

Impressed by some sensible moments by Antoine Dupont, France received off to a perfect begin in Paris, except for seeing fly-half Romain Ntamack obtain a pink card for a deal with on Ben Thomas. However was France’s excellent begin the prelude for an ideal event?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

There is a caveat right here, and that’s that France can definitely win a Grand Slam IF Antoine Dupont stays match. It is conceivable that they may win the title ought to he miss a recreation, however something extra could be like changing the engine in a Ferrari: It’d look okay, but it surely would not work almost in addition to it ought to.

Holding any aspect to zero factors (even this Wales aspect) is exceptional within the Six Nations, and the reality is that they by no means seemed like conceding on Friday.

France had been too sturdy, too organised and too assured from the primary whistle. In addition they confirmed they’ve the depth of their squad to go all the way in which. Whereas they will not be afforded the posh each week, taking Dupont off after 50 minutes was definitely a flex.

Théo Attissogbé was a worthy substitute, however the return of Damien Penaud to the fitting wing from right here on will add much more punch to their assault alongside Leo Bielle-Biarrey on the left. Even the prospect of a number of weeks with out fly-half Ntamack will not fear Fabien Galthié an excessive amount of, with Matthieu Jalibert or Thomas Ramos greater than in a position to fill the void.

As talked about above, this Six Nations appears to be like to be on a crescendo towards March 8. If France can emerge victorious, will probably be Les Bleus – not Eire – who can be looking at a Grand Slam, however that is still a really tall order. — James Regan

Accidents will break Scotland’s championship

Scotland began effectively in opposition to Italy, racing to a 19-6 lead, however noticed the Azzurri pull the sport again stage after half-time. It ended with a Scottish victory and a convincing scoreline, however will Gregor Townsend’s depleted squad wrestle to get a foothold this 12 months?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Scotland had been with out stars akin to Sione Tuipulotu, Dylan Richardson, Scott Cummings and Josh Bayliss, however that didn’t cease them. Whereas they had been shaky within the third quarter of the match in opposition to Italy, Scotland nonetheless had the gamers they wanted for a cushty win and so they have the expertise to harm Eire subsequent weekend.

Huw Jones’ hat trick on Saturday proved he has the attacking imaginative and prescient for his or her midfield, whereas both Stafford McDowall (who began) or Tom Jordan (who got here on after 55 minutes) simply have to do the fundamentals in defence within the absence of Tuipulotu alongside him to get Scotland by way of.

They nonetheless have the likes of Zander Fagerson, Pierre Schoeman and Rory Darge getting Scotland on the entrance foot. Plus, Finn Russell will possible have extra of an affect this event than he did in opposition to Italy.

We noticed sufficient for essentially the most half from Townsend’s aspect to know they’re nonetheless a menace, even with their mammoth damage listing.

It will likely be a troublesome process in opposition to Eire subsequent week: They have not received in opposition to Eire of their final 10 Checks, courting again to 2018, with only one win within the final 15, courting again to 2014.

It could be simple to write down Scotland off, however the problem for Townsend is to place a fireplace beneath his aspect. What higher means to do this than urge them to make some historical past. — Regan

Aggressive Italy are right here to remain

Italy earned two wins in final 12 months’s Six Nations. It felt like a exceptional feat and an indication that Italy had been gaining energy. They did not fairly kick on after that, although, with defeats to Samoa and Argentina adopted by an enormous nervy win over Georgia.

After solely a briefly promising defeat to Scotland, can Italy be the shock package deal on this 12 months’s championship, too?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

They’re going to be upset with the way in which they began, however Italy confirmed some struggle to deliver it again to 19-19 in opposition to Scotland after being 19-6 down. That very same spirit is what drove their best-ever run in final 12 months’s championship.

Head coach Gonzalo Quesada can be reaffirming to his gamers that they are in numerous waters now: Everyone seems to be taking them very significantly this 12 months, which means they’re going to have to boost their recreation every week. There can be harder checks than Scotland, but additionally extra winnable ones, too.

That brings us to subsequent Saturday. As talked about, Gatland’s aspect can be keen to not prolong their dropping streak to 14, however Italy, not like years previous, have the gamers to harm them in the event that they’re at their greatest.

Quesada will need extra from fly-half Paolo Garbisi, who did not hit the bottom operating in Edinburgh, whereas Ange Capuozzo was largely un-influential on the wing. If these two can get their arms on the ball and create extra, Italy may notch an early win and ship a sign that they don’t seem to be going anyplace. — Regan

– Tom Hamilton’s evaluation from Dublin: One other painful case of déjà vu for England
– James Regan’s take from Paris: Antoine Dupont produces virtuoso show
– NEWS: Former England captain Jamie George returns to squad
– WATCH: ‘Strain rising’ on Borthwick following Eire loss
– Six Nations and Girls’s Six Nations: Full fixture listing
– Six Nations historical past, previous winners, extra