It has been about 4 months since Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka polished off their US Open titles in comfy vogue. Sinner dropped solely two of 23 units, whereas Sabalenka dropped solely one in every of 15, and each gained their second Slam titles of 2024 on their option to year-end No. 1 rankings.
After a comparatively turbulent fall and winter, full with accidents and additional grumbling about overloaded tour schedules, plus the fallout from a few distinguished constructive drug checks (on each the lads’s and ladies’s sides), the primary Slam of 2025 arrives. It’s under no circumstances stunning to report that the favorites are once more Sinner and Sabalenka. However loads can go awry over a fortnight. Let’s take a look at the principle solid of characters for the 2025 Australian Open, from the favorites and vice-favorites to the underdogs and the most certainly first-week tales.
The favorites
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +130 | Tennis Summary odds: 65.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
Regardless of the darkish cloud of a no-fault drug check (and all it revealed about tennis’ surprisingly secretive drug-testing processes), Sinner loved an unbelievable 2024, not solely successful each hard-court Slams but additionally taking the year-end ATP finals, three Masters 1000 occasions and even main Italy to the Davis Cup title. He went 0-3 towards Carlos Alcaraz and 73-3 towards the remainder of the world. His serve has became probably the most harmful on the earth — he gained 71.1% of his service factors in 2024, probably the most of anybody within the ATP high 50 — and he is obtained a top-five return, too.
Earlier health considerations washed away to a level in 2024, and what was left was probably the most full and devastating general sport in tennis. Tennis Summary offers him a 66% probability on the title, which is a completely absurd quantity contemplating the scale of the 128-man discipline.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +220 | Tennis Summary odds: 23.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (quarterfinals)
Sabalenka’s 2024 suffers solely when in comparison with Sinner’s. The 26-year-old additionally gained each hard-court Slams — she’s now reached the finals of 4 straight hard-court Slams, with three titles — and she or he reached the finals of 4 1000-level occasions, successful two. She missed a part of the summer time (together with Wimbledon) with a shoulder harm and suffered a few upset losses upon her return, however she discovered her type in time for the US Open and at one level gained 22 of 23 matches.
Sabalenka is aiming for a 3rd straight Aussie title, and her draw did not do her many favors. She may play rising teenager Mirra Andreeva (who handed Sabalenka her solely Slam lack of the season on the French Open) within the fourth spherical, final yr’s different Aussie finalist, Zheng, within the quarters and Coco Gauff, the final lady to beat her in a hard-court Slam, within the semis. That is tough, however she’ll be the favourite in each match.
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +330 | Tennis Summary odds: 6.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Novak Djokovic or No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Can you will have a disappointing two-Slam season? Alcaraz, 21, went unbeaten towards Sinner and gained his first French Open and second Wimbledon title in 2024. That gave him 4 Slam titles as he entered the US Open — as many as Novak Djokovic (1), Rafael Nadal (3) and Roger Federer (0) had mixed on the identical age. However Alcaraz nonetheless struggled with inconsistency, dropping three of 5 at one level in January and February, three of 4 in a summer time spell that featured each an Olympic loss to Djokovic and a second-round shock towards Botic Van De Zandschulp on the US Open, and three of 4 within the fall.
Alcaraz switched to a heavier racket throughout tennis’ ever-so-brief offseason, and we’ll see if 2024’s random dry spells have been a quick bug or just a characteristic of Alcaraz’s outlandish and intensely confidence-based sport.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Summary odds: 21.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Emma Navarro or No. 9 Daria Kasatkina (quarterfinals)
Here is what a subpar yr seems to be like for Iga Swiatek: In 2024, the 23-year-old merely gained her fourth French Open title, gained 4 1000-level occasions, took bronze within the Olympics, went 64-9 general and completed the yr No. 2. Within the wake of this disappointment, Swiatek shook up her teaching group, bringing in veteran Wim Fissette.
Since her quarterfinal defeat to Jessica Pegula on the US Open and her temporary drug suspension, Swiatek has gone 9-2, dropping twice to Coco Gauff however in any other case trying robust. She hasn’t reached the semis of a hard-court Slam since 2022, however it’s nonetheless a shock anytime she loses.
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Summary odds: 17.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (quarterfinals)
Since dropping to Emma Navarro within the US Open spherical of 16 — it was her second loss to Navarro in as many Slams — Gauff, nonetheless solely 20, has shifted into fifth gear. She’s 18-2 over the previous 4 months, 3-2 towards top-five gamers. Together with her pace and resilience, she’s lengthy been one of many extra upset-proof gamers on tour; actually, she hasn’t misplaced to a participant outdoors the highest 50 since falling to Sofia Kenin, her first-round opponent this week, at Wimbledon in 2023). However now she’s persistently beating the highest gamers too.
Navarro is safely on the opposite aspect of the draw, however Gauff’s slate continues to be tough: She may face both two-time US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova or four-time hard-court Slam champion Naomi Osaka within the fourth spherical, US Open finalist Pegula within the quarters and Sabalenka within the semis.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Summary odds: 13.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (fourth spherical)
Be it an issue of age, motivation or each, Djokovic, 37, is coming off of his worst tour season since 2006. Granted, his horrible season nonetheless included an Olympic gold medal (principally the one achievement he beforehand lacked) and a run to the Wimbledon finals simply weeks after he suffered a torn meniscus on the French Open. However he nonetheless went simply 37-9 in 2024, 2-4 towards ATP top-10 gamers. He dropped 5 of six units towards Sinner and obtained smoked by Alcaraz in stated Wimbledon last.
Djokovic made a pleasant transfer in bringing the just lately retired Andy Murray into his teaching group, and it nonetheless will not be a lot of a shock if or when he wins a twenty fifth Slam. However at this level it additionally would not be a shock if his Olympic triumph was his final main title.
Solely want just a few breaks
Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET odds: +750 | Tennis Summary odds: 7.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Danielle Collins (fourth spherical)
She has gained three of her previous 5 matches towards Sabalenka and 4 of six towards Swiatek. She’s gained 16 of her previous 18 matches at Wimbledon and reached the Australian Open last in 2023. Rybakina, 25, is a big-match participant with an unlimited sport.
She’s additionally exited 4 of her previous seven Slams earlier than the fourth spherical. Rybakina withdrew from two tournaments in 2024 (together with the US Open) and retired mid-match in 4 others. Together with her US Open withdrawal she gained solely three of her final eight matches final yr, then handled a messy teaching scenario: She parted methods with Stefano Vukov amid rumors of participant mistreatment, employed former Djokovic coach Goran Ivanisevic, then introduced Vukov again into the fold. It is a massive, awkward scenario, however her sport stays prodigious.
Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET odds: +1000 | Tennis Summary odds: 5.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Casper Ruud (quarterfinals)
With a relentlessly constant serve and an rising willingness to play sufferball, Zverev loved the perfect yr of his profession in 2024, successful 68 matches, reaching the French Open last and Australian Open semis and ending the yr second within the ATP rankings. His endurance turns into passivity at occasions, which is a legal responsibility towards high gamers — he went simply 2-5 towards the highest 5 regardless of his lofty rating — however he is constant, and he has a fairly favorable draw.
Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Summary odds: 3.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (fourth spherical)
He is been surpassed by Sinner and Alcaraz — towards whom he went simply 1-8 final yr — and he has but so as to add a second Slam title to his 2021 US Open crown. And together with a pair of Laver Cup losses, he went simply 7-8 to complete 2024. However the 28-year-old Medvedev, along with his large wingspan and defensive capabilities, stays one of the vital irritating gamers to face on the lads’s aspect. He additionally stays extremely harmful on exhausting courts, the place he is reached the finals in 5 of his previous eight Slams.
Zheng Qinwen
ESPN BET odds: +1400 | Tennis Summary odds: 8.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
With Rybakina coping with a lot inconsistency in the intervening time, Zheng, 22, is likely to be the fourth-best ladies’s participant on the earth proper now. It is unlucky that she may need to beat Sabalenka (towards whom she gained simply one in every of 9 units in 2024) to get again to the Aussie semifinals, however the defending Olympic gold medalist continues to be growing her sport. She gained a better share of each her service factors (61.8%) and return factors (44.5%) than ever in 2024, and she or he gained titles on each clay and exhausting courts.
Taylor Fritz
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 1.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
He spent 4 years making an attempt to maneuver from a top-50 stage to top-10 and did it. He spent two years making an attempt to maneuver from the highest 10 to the highest 5 and, in 2024, did that too. The 27-year-old reached the finals of each the US Open and Tour finals, going 0-6 towards Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic however 5-1 towards Zverev and Medvedev and ending the yr No. 4 on the earth. Nobody has executed a extra intriguing job of slowly turning weaknesses into strengths. Does he have yet another gear in 2025, or was final yr the height?
Karolina Muchova
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Summary odds: 2.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth spherical)
She’s solely the No. 20 seed, and her potential draw — Gauff within the fourth spherical, Pegula or Paula Badosa within the quarters, Sabalenka within the semis — is intimidating. However there won’t be a participant on the earth who strikes a tennis ball cleaner than Muchova, and when she’s 100% match, she’s devastating. After lacking the primary half of 2024 with harm, Muchova reached the US Open semis and the finals in Beijing, and for the season she went a strong 3-4 towards the highest 10. She obtained swept by each Gauff and Swiatek within the current United Cup, however she additionally swept French Open and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini on the identical occasion. There isn’t any query that the 28-year-old has a possible top-five run in her.
Others: Madison Keys (+2800), Jessica Pegula (+2800), Alex de Minaur (+3300), Jack Draper (+3300), Jasmine Paolini (+3300), Andrey Rublev (+3300), Holger Rune (+3300), Paula Badosa (+4000), Emma Navarro (+4000), Amanda Anisimova (+5000), Grigor Dimitrov (+5000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (+5000), Ugo Humbert (+5000), Ons Jabeur (+5000), Anna Kalinskaya (+5000), Sebastian Korda (+5000), Emma Raducanu (+5000), Casper Ruud (+5000), Maria Sakkari (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Ben Shelton (+5000), Elina Svitolina (+5000), Donna Vekic (+5000).
They find it irresistible Down Below
Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Coco Gauff (fourth spherical)
It is a massive yr for the four-time Slam champion, who returned to the tour in 2024 following the start of her first little one and randomly flashed large upside — most notably whereas coming achingly near beating Swiatek on the French Open — however nonetheless went simply 22-18 for the yr (6-7 versus the highest 20). She stated just lately that she “will not grasp round” if outcomes do not enhance, however she started 2025 with a run to the finals in Auckland. (She gained the primary set of the ultimate earlier than retiring with what’s hopefully a minor harm.)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex de Minaur (fourth spherical)
He has gained 24 of his previous 30 Australian Open matches, and he is a four-time semifinalist and one-time finalist. However over his previous three hard-court Slams, Tsitsipas has gained simply 4 matches, and towards top-20 opponents on the floor in 2024 he went simply 1-6. After ending sixth or higher within the ATP rankings for 5 straight years, he heads to Melbourne ranked simply eleventh. He is nonetheless solely 26 and will piece collectively one other prolonged, robust run of elite type, however he is listless in the intervening time.
Others: Victoria Azarenka (+5000, 2012-13 champion), Danielle Collins (+5000, 2022 finalist), Hubert Hurkacz (+5000, 2024 quarterfinalist), Marta Kostyuk (+5000, 2024 quarterfinalist), Tommy Paul (+5000, 2023 semifinalist), Linda Noskova (+6600, 2024 quarterfinalist), Karen Khachanov (+15000, 2023 semifinalist), Stan Wawrinka (+25000, 2014 champion), Sofia Kenin (+50000, 2020 champion), Magda Linette (+10000, 2022 semifinalist), Dayana Yastremska (+10000, 2024 semifinalist).
The 22-and-unders
Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (fourth spherical)
We’re used to kids pulling early upsets or making waves with first-week runs at Slams. It is a enjoyable and dependable subplot, however Andreeva has ambitions far larger than a first-week run. The 17-year-old enters the Australian Open ranked fifteenth on the earth, and she or he rolled previous Sabalenka on the best way to the French Open semifinals final yr.
Andreeva continues to be adjusting to life as a favourite — she misplaced within the first spherical at Wimbledon and the second on the US Open following her Roland Garros run — however she nonetheless completed the yr on a 17-6 run, and she or he already has among the finest returns within the sport. As quickly because the serve comes round, she strikes into the favorites tier.
Diana Shnaider
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (fourth spherical)
There are at the moment solely 4 under-21 gamers within the WTA high 50: Gauff, Andreeva, Noskova and the 20-year-old Shnaider, who teamed with Andreeva to win the doubles silver medal finally summer time’s Olympics. Solely 5-foot-7, Shnaider has a novel sport on tour, hitting a tough lefty ball and sustaining a excessive stage of depth. She beat Gauff in Toronto, and she or he reached her first Slam third spherical at Wimbledon, then her first fourth spherical on the US Open. She has truly handed Andreeva to thirteenth within the WTA rankings.
Joao Fonseca
ESPN BET odds: +25000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 9 Andrey Rublev (first spherical)
His keep in Melbourne is likely to be temporary, however catch a glimpse of Fonseca whilst you can. The 18-year-old Brazilian gained the Subsequent Era ATP Finals in December and dropped solely 12 video games in six units whereas rolling by way of three qualification matches this previous week. Although solely 113th within the ATP rankings, he is already within the high 30 within the results-based Tennis Summary Elo rankings, which truly give him an nearly 50-50 probability of beating Rublev within the first spherical of his first Slam. Nobody’s a surefire future star at 18, however it looks like Fonseca is very shut.
Others: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+6600), Arthur Fils (+8000), Jakub Mensik (+15000), Alex Michelsen (+15000)
The comeback youngsters
Nick Kyrgios
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Summary odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 2 Alexander Zverev (third spherical)
His final tour win got here in Tokyo in October 2022. He has missed nearly all of two years with knee, foot and wrist accidents. He has settled into life as a pundit and podcaster, however he is additionally giving precise tennis one other go. Or he is making an attempt to, a minimum of. After dropping a three-setter to rising teen Mpetshi Perricard in Brisbane, Kyrgios withdrew from an exhibition match with Djokovic due to an belly harm. If he performs, he’ll fill the stands. However we’ll see.
Others: Marketa Vondrousova (+5000), Reilly Opelka (+12500)
The Aussies
Alexei Popyrin
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Summary odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (third spherical)
Kyrgios and de Minaur apart, there are just a few different Australian gamers who may gentle the gang up for just a few matches. That listing nearly has to start out with the 6-foot-5 Popyrin, who knocked Djokovic out in 4 units in final yr’s US Open. That was one in every of six top-10 wins on the season for the 25-year-old who can nonetheless be inconsistent at occasions however comes up enormous towards the most important gamers. A possible third-round match towards Medvedev could be a heavyweight slugfest.
Thanasi Kokkinakis
ESPN BET odds: +15000 | Tennis Summary odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth spherical)
After what felt like thousands and thousands of accidents, the 28-year-old gained a match in any respect 4 Slams for the primary time in his profession in 2024, and he may current a stiff problem to both No. 15 Draper within the second spherical, No. 22 Korda within the third or Alcaraz within the fourth. He is a crowd pleaser with fairly a little bit of Davis Cup success on his résumé.
Maya Joint
ESPN BET odds: +100000 | Tennis Summary odds: <0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (first spherical)
Like Fonseca, Joint, a significant 2025 breakout candidate, won’t keep lengthy in Melbourne attributable to a first-round matchup towards Pegula. However the 18-year-old Aussie (by means of Grosse Pointe, Michigan) hits a giant ball and scored her first tour (and Slam) win over Laura Siegemund within the US Open. She has begun the season brilliantly, taking Azarenka to 3 units in Brisbane and dropping simply six complete video games in wins over Kenin and Linette in Hobart this previous week.
Others: Jordan Thompson (+15000), Kimberly Birrell (+100000), Olivia Gadecki (+100000), Ajla Tomljanovic (+100000)
