With momentum on his aspect, can Carlos Alcaraz defend his French Open crown — or will Jannik Sinner win the title as he returns from a doping ban? May Novak Djokovic put collectively a miracle event to win a record-breaking twenty fifth Grand Slam title?
Final 12 months’s girls’s champion, Iga Swiatek, has had a nightmare of a season. Will Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff upset her in Paris to take their first Roland Garros title?
Our consultants weigh in because the French Open begins Sunday.
How do you assume Djokovic will fare right here?
Invoice Connelly: For those who consider that rhythm issues at all, it is arduous to be optimistic. Since he received damage on the Australian Open, he is 7-5 general, and 5 of these wins got here in a single event (Miami). He was 0-2 on clay, with zero units gained, earlier than heading to Geneva this week, and the truth that he is taking part in one other event the week earlier than a Slam in any respect tells you ways determined he was to search out some rhythm and confidence.
That mentioned, his draw is gorgeous, and, nicely, he did nonetheless make the Australian Open semifinals and win all 10 matches he was truly in a position to play at Roland Garros final 12 months (minus his withdrawal in opposition to Casper Ruud within the French Open quarterfinals). If he is in a position to enhance his kind in each Geneva and the early rounds at Roland Garros, then it isn’t arduous to see him at the least reaching the quarterfinals. And if potential quarterfinal opponent Alexander Zverev’s personal kind does not enhance, maybe Djokovic might go even additional than that, although a semifinal in opposition to Sinner very a lot looks like a bridge too far.
D’Arcy Maine: The $2.87 million query! It is extremely difficult — maybe unattainable — to know what to anticipate from Djokovic at this level. When at his finest, he is nonetheless a dominant drive, however that stage appears to be more and more uncommon and the chance of him having the ability to persistently play at a excessive kind for a number of matches in a row in opposition to prime opponents is slim. He has struggled on clay this season and hadn’t gained consecutive matches till 250-level Geneva this week. That is not precisely the momentum one desires to reach to Paris with.
Nevertheless, as Invoice talked about, Djokovic’s draw, or at the least the primary a number of matches, are favorable. And if anybody can play themselves into rivalry and kind at a Slam, it must be Djokovic. Whereas I actually do not rely him among the many top-tier favorites — that might be reserved completely for Alcaraz and Sinner for the time being — I am unable to precisely rely him out of rivalry both. At this level, I am unsure any outcome — from an early exit to successful all of it — would completely shock me, however I feel the quarterfinals looks like a secure reply.
Tom Hamilton: That is all about momentum, and the draw has opened issues up splendidly for him. He is maybe the most effective within the sport for clicking into his successful mindset and given his latest kind — particularly on clay — he’ll want to search out that internal dedication once more which has led him to such unbelievable feats within the sport. If he performs his method in, then he’ll get extra harmful because the matches construct. If the draw goes as anticipated, then he ought to beat Zverev within the quarterfinals after which it is down as to if he can discover the Djokovic of previous for a possible semifinal in opposition to Sinner. I feel he’ll get to the ultimate 4.
Simon Cambers: Based mostly on his kind this 12 months, it’s virtually unattainable to know. He was good in Australia earlier than he received injured, and performed nicely in Miami, however in any other case has struggled badly. It was fascinating speaking to him in Monte Carlo — he made no secret that it is turning into increasingly troublesome to get motivated. Nevertheless, it is a Grand Slam, and which means he should not have any motivational points. He additionally has an outstanding early draw that ought to permit him to work his method into the event.
I do not see him successful this — it must be remembered that as nice as he’s, he’s now 38 and it simply does not get any simpler. There are too many different gamers who can hassle him, and he would possibly simply change into too fatigued by the point he will get to the quarters. But when he does make it by Week 1 with out an excessive amount of effort, then he can be massively harmful, as he desires that twenty fifth slam title.
With Swiatek’s latest struggles, what can she do to win a fourth straight title?
Connelly: She completely can. Even in such a irritating 12 months, she’s nonetheless 27-9 in 2025, and he or she’s 27-3 in opposition to gamers not named Gauff, Mirra Andreeva or, hilariously, Jelena Ostapenko. The truth that she was overwhelmed so completely in her previous two clay-court tournaments — 6-1, 6-1 to Gauff in Madrid; 6-1, 7-5 to Danielle Collins in Rome — actually does not lend confidence, and her draw is completely brutal.
Swiatek may need to face Marta Kostyuk (6-2 on clay this 12 months, with each losses to Sabalenka) within the third spherical and probably both Elena Rybakina (in opposition to whom she’s 4-4 all time, 0-2 on clay) or her forever-foil, Ostapenko (in opposition to whom she’s 0-6) within the fourth. If she will get previous that, she ought to face final 12 months’s runner-up, Jasmine Paolini, within the quarterfinals simply to succeed in No. 1 seed Sabalenka within the semis. And if she will get previous that, both Andreeva or Gauff might await within the finals. If she wins her fifth French Open (and retains tempo with Rafael Nadal in that regard), she’ll most actually have earned it.
Maine: Swiatek actually can win once more, however she has proven simply how weak and beatable she is in the course of the lead-in occasions. Clearly her expertise and clay acumen have not disappeared, however she goes to wish to rediscover her confidence — and quick — and never let the strain of her earlier triumphs on the event overwhelm her.
Her draw is extremely difficult, however her opening two rounds (in opposition to Rebecca Sramkova after which probably Emma Raducanu, whom she routed 6-1, 6-0 of their final assembly on the Australian Open) might assist together with her self-belief and bolster her in opposition to some possible very robust opponents. It is arduous to see Swiatek lastly getting her first-ever defeat over Ostapenko within the fourth spherical at this level in the event that they have been to fulfill, but when she have been to try this, and show to herself she will be able to do it and remind herself of what she’s succesful, that would flip every part round.
Hamilton: It is a tough draw for Swiatek and her kind does not offer you many causes for optimism. However Roland Garros is her second dwelling and he or she finds a approach to lock herself into this zone the place she is totally unplayable. Bear in mind final 12 months when she was so almost knocked out in opposition to Naomi Osaka? Properly she discovered a approach to get herself again into that contest and every week or so later, she was lifting the trophy for the fourth time.
That is about ignoring noise and strain and specializing in what makes her unbeatable on clay (and discovering a approach to defeat Ostapenko). If anybody can string collectively a fortnight’s price of performances, then it is her.
Cambers: The very first thing Swiatek must do is take a breath and remind herself that she has gained the French Open 4 instances. It has been arduous to observe her the previous few months, wanting so burdened on courtroom. A few of that is likely to be hangover from her one-month suspension. Her aura has positively disappeared, for now. When she is examined, it is virtually a case of simply ready for her to unravel.
It will not assist her mindset to see her arch nemesis, Ostapenko, in her part of the draw, although. Ostapenko has overwhelmed her six instances out of six, and in the event that they meet in Spherical 4, it is going to be a large check of Swiatek’s psychological power. It won’t be simple to get that far, both, with Raducanu and Kostyuk in her part. Swiatek wants a few good wins to settle, and if she does, then her confidence will develop. On kind, it is asking loads for her to win the title for a fifth time, however it would possibly take only one good match, and even one thing in a person match, for her to flip the swap.
Which American will advance the furthest in Paris?
Connelly: It’s important to begin with Gauff. She’s 19-4 in her previous 4 French Opens, and he or she reached the semis final 12 months and the finals in 2022. Andreeva does lurk on her aspect of the draw, however Sabalenka, Swiatek and Paolini are all on the opposite aspect. She’s the No. 3 betting favourite, per ESPN BET, and with Sabalenka and Swiatek assembly in a hypothetical semifinal, you would say she has a case to be No. 2.
On the boys’s aspect, give me Tommy Paul. His draw isn’t extremely conducive to a run — he would possibly face two-time runner-up Ruud within the fourth spherical and Alcaraz within the quarters — however I feel he is the most effective American clay-courter among the many males for the time being, and Taylor Fritz’s draw is not considerably higher. Sebastian Korda did attain the fourth spherical in Paris at age 20 in 2020, however he is simply 5-4 at Roland Garros since, and he is a reasonably dismal 3-4 on clay this 12 months. So I will say Paul.
Maine: It actually looks like Gauff is the clear reply. Along with her previous success on the event, she has been taking part in arguably the most effective clay tennis of her profession this season. She reached the ultimate in Madrid, recording a dominant 6-1, 6-1 win over Swiatek within the semis and a straight-sets victory over Andreeva within the quarters, after which reached the ultimate in Rome. Whereas she did not get the trophy there both, she made a press release with a gutsy, marathon victory over Zheng Qinwen in a semifinal conflict that lasted over three-and-a-half hours.
Now ranked No. 2, Gauff brings momentum and confidence — and a starvation for extra — to Paris. Reigning Australian Open champion (and fellow American) Madison Keys might be a possible quarterfinal opponent, and Gauff might face Andreeva or countrywoman Jessica Pegula within the semis, however a closing look appears nicely inside attain given how nicely she has been taking part in as of late.
On the boys’s aspect, Paul actually had a powerful run in Rome, and does have a repossessed truck to battle for in any case, however it’s arduous to see him getting previous the opponents Invoice talked about. Nonetheless, I am unsure one other American will get additional than him. Though you by no means know, maybe we’d get extra Cinderella runs like we noticed in Melbourne from Learner Tien (who faces Zverev within the first spherical) and Alex Michelsen (who will play a qualifier).
Hamilton: Properly everybody’s going for Gauff, so I will need to say … the identical. I’ve her right down to make a deep run and he or she might nicely change into the primary American girl to win the competitors since Serena Williams in 2015. Gauff’s come so shut previously, and has developed an all-court sport. She has these two finals to her title on clay this 12 months and although she fell to Sabalenka in Madrid and Paolini in Rome, she’s constructing kind properly forward of Roland Garros.
On the boys’s aspect, Paul has that unlucky draw the place he’ll possible run into Ruud and Alcaraz. Ruud will possible get previous him there. Elsewhere, Korda’s struggling for kind on clay, Tiafoe’s by no means received previous the third spherical, and Fritz’s finest end is the fourth spherical, so it is arduous to see anybody ending the 26-year watch for an American champion on the boys’s aspect at Roland Garros.
Cambers: Gauff is the apparent decide on the ladies’s aspect, and he or she appears to have a simple path to the quarterfinals. Gauff has performed good, constant tennis this clay-court season and has proven outstanding resistance, on condition that her serve and forehand stay technically weak when her confidence isn’t there. Peyton Stearns was excellent in Rome, and if she will get going, she might be genuinely arduous to cease. She does have Zheng as a attainable third-round opponent, although, which might cease her in her tracks. Gauff is most definitely.
On the boys’s aspect, the People have a troublesome draw all spherical, with most of them in sections with some large names. Paul ought to make the final 16, however Ruud might be ready for him there; Ben Shelton has a sport that might be good on clay however has Alcaraz in the best way. Fritz has a troublesome first-rounder, but when he will get previous Daniel Altmaier, he might be the one. Korda and Frances Tiafoe are in the identical quarter. Even when clay isn’t his finest floor, Fritz might emerge as the most effective likelihood.
Is that this probably the most wide-open French Open in latest historical past? Which participant might shock within the subsequent two weeks?
Connelly: With Swiatek and Djokovic each combating confidence and kind, you’ll be able to actually make the case for one thing large open. However when you squint excellent, it positive looks like we might be cruising to a pair of 1-versus-2 finals (Sinner vs. Alcaraz, Sabalenka vs. Gauff). The truth that nobody might make the most of Sinner’s monthslong absence to make a reputation for themselves (and even take his No. 1 rating) was, to me, a fairly large indictment of the depth on the boys’s aspect, and it could take a fairly large upset to maintain us from Sinner-Alcaraz. (Not that I might complain about lastly getting a Sinner-Alcaraz Slam closing.)
The ladies’s aspect would not want many upsets to bust large open, nonetheless. Depth is immense proper now, and past Sabalenka, Gauff and Swiatek, you can also make a reasonably credible case for Andreeva, Paolini, 2024 Olympic gold medalist Zheng, 2023 French Open finalist Karolina Muchova, an in-form veteran similar to Elina Svitolina or, dare I dream, Naomi Osaka. Sabalenka may need to get previous Collins, Amanda Anisimova (who beat her in Toronto final 12 months) and Zheng (who simply beat her in Rome) to get to Paolini or Swiatek within the semis! There are obstacles in all places you look within the girls’s draw.
Maine: On the ladies’s aspect, I feel it appears extra large open than it has since Swiatek has emerged as the dominant drive on the floor. However with that mentioned, I would not be stunned by deep runs, or perhaps a title, from a variety of gamers. I feel Keys served as a reminder to many who they, too, have been able to successful Slams, and it is going to be attention-grabbing to see the residual influence of that in Paris. Paolini reached the ultimate final 12 months and is coming off an unbelievable run in Rome, successful each the singles and doubles titles. Why not her, and why not now?
As for the boys, I am with Invoice. This can be a two-way battle between Sinner and Alcaraz. Mixed, they’ve gained the previous 5 main titles, and I do not see that pattern stopping now. Since you requested so properly, I will say No. 14 seed Arthur Fils has the (ever-so-slight) likelihood to tug off a shock upset within the fourth spherical in opposition to Sinner. With the house crowd behind him, and a few regular clay outcomes this season (together with a semifinal look in Barcelona and the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo), he might discover some magic and thrill the French crowd. After which issues would actually get attention-grabbing.
Hamilton: So it is fairly open, however not probably the most open in historical past. On the ladies’s aspect, Swiatek’s kind is shaky, however she’s nonetheless most likely favourite. But when she does not win, then I feel Paolini might find yourself lifting her first Grand Slam title, recent from her triumph in Rome. Then you may have the rising drive of Andreeva, the brilliance of Gauff and the others who know find out how to win large matches on clay like Sabalenka and Zheng. However I nonetheless assume it’s going to find yourself being a Swiatek-dominated event.
On the boys’s aspect, it would be nice to see an Alcaraz-Sinner closing, however I am tipping — and have finished for a protracted whereas — Draper to do one thing particular at Roland Garros. The Brit is in good kind and has managed to discover a approach to make himself extra sturdy. If it comes collectively for him, he can win the entire thing.
Nevertheless it appears predestined for a match-up between Alcaraz and Sinner, with Alcaraz successful. Although, dare we dream, in the future, it would be nice to see a French participant win a title once more there.
Cambers: I do not assume it is probably the most open in historical past. I’ve a protracted reminiscence, and B.R. (Earlier than Rafa) nothing was assured on the boys’s aspect, as Gaston Gaudio would possibly remind us. Alcaraz has the most effective kind and is the defending champion, so he deserves to be favourite, particularly after beating the returning Sinner within the Rome closing. Sinner additionally regarded good in Rome, and if he finds something like the shape he did in opposition to Ruud there, then he can be very arduous to cease. Behind them, Ruud, Zverev and Djokovic could have an opportunity, whereas Jack Draper is now a real title menace on each floor. It will be a shock ought to considered one of Alcaraz or Sinner not win the title.
The ladies’s title, although, may be very open, not least as a result of Sabalenka has not fairly matched her hard-court kind on clay this spring. With Swiatek enormously weak — on latest kind — the door is open for somebody unheralded to come back by, and it could be no shock ought to somebody from outdoors the highest 10 attain the semis and perhaps additional. Gauff can be there or thereabouts, however Paolini might be the one, using excessive on confidence after her good Rome.
Who’s the most definitely participant to win their first Grand Slam title at this 12 months’s French Open?
Connelly: Andreeva. Her profession has already been a sequence of unbelievable breakthroughs, not least of which was upsetting Sabalenka to succeed in final 12 months’s French Open semis. She has already gained a pair of 1000-level occasions in 2025, and in opposition to gamers not named Gauff or Sabalenka she’s 26-3 this 12 months. (And she or he has overwhelmed Sabalenka twice previously 12 months!) She’s prepared for an additional breakthrough … if she will be able to ultimately determine find out how to conquer Gauff, anyway.
On the boys’s aspect, give me Lorenzo Musetti. His draw is not terrible — his hardest opponent earlier than the semis is likely to be Holger Rune — and he went 7-2 at Roland Garros final 12 months, with each losses coming to Djokovic. He is 14-3 on clay this 12 months, too. It is nonetheless arduous to see previous Sinner and Alcaraz within the males’s draw, however Musetti would not want too many breaks to search out himself within the finals.
Maine: I will follow Paolini right here. She has come shut earlier than and is taking part in some impressed tennis. Her 6-4, 6-2 victory over Gauff within the Italian Open closing was spectacular. She is in the identical quarter as Swiatek and has by no means overwhelmed the reigning champion earlier than — together with shedding to her within the closing final 12 months — however it actually appears as if their momentum has shifted in latest months.
A primary-time males’s main champion appears unlikely, however Ruud is a two-time French Open finalist and gained the title in Madrid earlier this month. It will be a problem to defeat Alcaraz within the quarters however actually not unattainable. Ruud had a demoralizing 6-0, 6-1 loss to Sinner within the Rome quarterfinals, however maybe that might give him additional motivation in the event that they have been to fulfill within the closing? I is likely to be reaching right here.
Hamilton: I am going with Paolini and Draper or Ruud. Paolini has that unbelievable run in Rome behind her, whereas Draper is oh-so-nearly there to successful a significant event on clay. Ruud is a two-time finalist and can ultimately recover from the road. However out of the above — with an honorable nod to Andreeva — it is Paolini.
Cambers: Paolini will go one higher than final 12 months. A change of coach appears to have finished the trick and with each week, her confidence is rising. She covers the courtroom so nicely and has extra energy than her measurement would recommend. The expertise of reaching the ultimate at Roland Garros and Wimbledon can be massively necessary, and he or she has the sport to do it. Andreeva could be the opposite alternative. She appears to enhance each week; her serve is vastly improved, and he or she loves taking part in in Paris, having made her first slam semifinal final 12 months.
On the boys’s aspect, it is a robust one. Alcaraz and Sinner are so robust that getting previous one or each can be extremely troublesome. However Ruud is the decide. Twice the runner-up in Paris and as soon as on the US Open, Ruud regarded like he would possibly go all the best way final 12 months earlier than he received unfortunate with sickness in his semifinal in opposition to Zverev. His first Masters 1000 title on clay in Madrid could have been a significant increase, and he has the power to do the identical at Roland Garros.
