Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley pick, prediction, odds: UFC Tampa

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the largest fights within the UFC. As we speak, he takes a better take a look at the UFC on ESPN 63 principal occasion between Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley.

Colby Covington

 

Staple information:

• Document: 17-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC
• Top: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 170 lbs. Attain: 72″
• Final battle: Choice loss to Leon Edwards (Dec. 16, 2024)
• Camp: MMA Masters (Florida)
• Stance/putting fashion: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Good

Supplemental information:
+ Former UFC interim welterweight titleholder
+ 2x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Very good cardio and conditioning
+ Improved general putting
^ Kicks, combos, counters
+ Glorious takedown means
^ Chains makes an attempt, continuously re-wrestles
+ Great prime recreation
^ Strong wrist-rides and positional consciousness
+/- 5-1 reverse UFC-level southpaws

Joaquin Buckley

 

Staple information:

• 20-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC
• Top: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 170 lbs. Attain: 76″
• Final battle: Knockout win over Stephen Thompson (Oct. 5, 2024)
• Camp: Finney’s HIT Squad (St. Louis/Illinois)
• Stance/putting fashion: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Threat administration: Honest

Supplemental information:
+ 14 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Athletic and explosive mover
^ Blitzes out and in of vary
+ Exhausting hooks and crosses
^ Coming ahead or off the counter
+ Underrated/underutilized kicking means
+ Sturdy contained in the clinch
+ Strong first-layer protection
^ Good sprawls and underhook consciousness
+ Servicable transitional grappler
^ Will scramble arduous to standing positions
+/- 0-1 reverse UFC-level southpaws

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley focal point: Southpaw vs. southpaw

The principle occasion on ESPN includes a semi-impromptu pairing of southpaws at 170 kilos.

Formally standing 5-1 reverse fellow UFC-level southpaws, Covington has been working arduous to enhance his putting since stepping onto the UFC scene.

From not crossing his toes to resetting his angles on the surface, Covington has displayed the power to create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his energy aspect – photographs that have been usually arrange by his jab.

Since parting methods with American High Group, Covington has since tried to construct upon mentioned expertise at MMA Masters. The 36-year-old standout will nonetheless sometimes roll below his crosses, however now Covington will usually achieve this whereas stepping by into an orthodox stance to arrange energy from that aspect.

Covington additionally seems to be extra content material to battle off the again foot in his previous couple of fights, displaying extra of a countering method. The previous interim titleholder can nonetheless sneak in savvy uppercuts and hooks in exchanges, demonstrating a extra diversified shot choice general (particularly when pressuring ahead).

No matter which avenue Covington chooses this Saturday, he’ll must be conscious of the bombs that can be coming again at him.

Enter Buckley.

A self-made martial artist from St. Louis, Buckley seems to be constructed for the battle recreation. Not solely can Buckley discuss the discuss, however the 30-year-old contender may stroll the stroll in the best way that he’s keen to go to battle with anybody on the roster.

Whether or not we’re taking a look at Buckley’s in-and-out actions or his pure aptitude for high-flying kicks, you’d be forgiven for assuming that “New Mansa” comes from a standard martial arts background. Add in his wholesome mixture of slipping and ripping hooks, and Buckley makes for a harmful bundle to cope with on the toes.

Buckley does tend to load up closely on linear advances, however the 10-year professional appears to do a greater job at lead-side prods and assaults when posed with a fellow southpaw stance.

Nonetheless, Buckley will must be cautious about his aggression getting used in opposition to him given the looming takedown threats from Covington.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley breakdown: Successful the wrestling

Contemplating the crux of Covington’s recreation, successful the wrestling will possible be paramount for Buckley this weekend.

Whether or not we’re speaking about singles or doubles, Covington has a ton of entries he can chain to and from when seeking to obtain his takedowns.

See more

Movie Research of Colby Covington’s Entries

How he enters into double legs, knee picks, single legs and physique locks

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(1/17) pic.twitter.com/JvAYIzZjXr

— Phantom Punch Breakdowns (@9h6st21_mma) December 13, 2023

Though reactionary photographs within the open will possible be accessible as a result of Buckley’s aggression, chaining assaults alongside the fence may find yourself being Covington’s finest guess. That mentioned, getting previous Buckley’s first layer of protection seems to be more and more tough as his profession progresses.

Possessing sturdy hips and an athletic sprawl that he retains on a hair-trigger, Buckley is sweet about shutting down photographs that come his means within the open. When Buckley is pressed in opposition to the cage, he applies strong underhook consciousness that he makes use of to assist hoist opponents off of his hips.

Nevertheless, Buckley can typically fail to cowl the pinnacle, which may permit for directional modifications and prolonged assaults from his opponent.

Buckley, to his credit score, is an pressing scrambler from unfavourable positions. However in opposition to a grappler like Covington, Buckley will must be cautious concerning the publicity he tends to provide when turtling to his base.

A gifted grappler from topside, Covington makes use of every part from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to interrupt an opponent’s stability and spirit. Whether or not he’s spiraling out the bottom of those that attempt to stand or putting them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily turning into a grasp chef with regards to cooking his counterparts beneath him.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley odds

Regardless of opening at virtually a decide’em, public cash has are available in on the youthful fighter, itemizing Buckley -300 and Covington +235 by way of FanDuel.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, decide

Despite the fact that I don’t disagree with public sentiment being low on Covington, this a lot of a variety in Buckley’s favor admittedly shocked me.

Buckley is unquestionably on the upswing and is the larger ending risk on this battle.

Nevertheless, it’s arduous to be as sure because the betting line above provided that we’ve seen little or no of Buckley’s protection reverse significant grappling or wrestling threats since his losses to Logan Storley and Nassourdine Imavov. Add in the truth that Buckley is technically 0-1 reverse UFC-level southpaws (versus Covington’s 5-1 in that statistical division), and I discover myself strolling firmer into the trimmings of stylistic evaluation.

I’m an enormous believer within the traditional adage, ‘Kinds make fights.’ Sadly, that method comes with the trimmings of time and intangibles hooked up.
Whether or not it’s age, harm or in any other case, fighters – primarily for worse – have a tendency to vary over time.

It’s arduous to say what the present combination is for Covington, however he has taken extra of a backfoot method since shifting store to MMA Masters, one thing that I imagine bodes badly for his recreation. Not solely does combating on the backfoot nuder a big a part of Covington’s wrestling offense, however stress is what was each filling the holes and fueling the success of his putting.

If Covington has not discovered that dynamic at this level in his profession, then we might even see a sadder-than-usual loss from “Chaos.” However even together with his newfound countering method, I believe that Buckley’s aggression will nonetheless inherently open up takedown alternatives for Covington.

Couple that together with his on-paper cardio edge, and I nonetheless have a tough time selecting in opposition to Covington on this spot. I’ll be genuinely glad for Buckley if he’s in a position to win right here, however they don’t name welterweight ‘wrestle-weight’ for no purpose—it’s as a result of the highest of the burden class has been closely inhabited by wrestlers because the days of Matt Hughes.

The decide is Covington by unanimous resolution.

Prediction: Covington by resolution