Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes prediction, expert pick: UFC 314

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to interrupt down the most important fights within the UFC. In the present day, he takes a better have a look at the UFC 314 primary occasion between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight championship.

Alexander Volkanovski UFC 314 preview

Staple data:

• File: 26-5 MMA, 13-4 UFC
• Peak: 5’6″ Age: 36 Weight: 145 lbs. Attain: 71.5″
• Final struggle: Knockout loss to Ilia Topuria (Feb. 17, 2024)
• Camp: Freestyle Preventing Health club/Bangtao Muay Thai (Australia)
• Stance/putting model: Change-stance/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Glorious

Supplemental data:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Nationwide wrestling gold medalist
+ 13 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO energy
+ Constant tempo and strain
+ Glorious feints and footwork
+ Correct shot choice and counters
^ Educated lead hand and arduous leg kicks
+ Stable wrestling capacity
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Good floor putting from topside

Diego Lopes UFC 314 preview

Staple data:

• File: 27-6 MMA, 6-1 UFC
• Peak: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Attain: 72.5″
• Final struggle: Choice win over Brian Ortega (Sept. 14, 2024)
• Camp: Brazilian Warriors/Legacy MMA (Mexico)
• Stance/putting model: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Danger administration: Honest

Supplemental data:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ A number of grappling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ Knockout energy
+ Aggressive tempo and strain
+ Improved boxing capacity
^ Correct left hook and uppercut returns
+ Arduous calf kicks
+ Glorious transitional grappler
^ Dynamic submission sport
+ Harmful off of again
^ Assaults from high-to-low

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes focal point: Featherweight fireworks

Brian Ortega (crimson gloves) fights Diego Lopes (blue bloves) throughout Riyadh Season Noche UFC 306 at The Sphere. (Stephen R. Sylvanie, Imagn Photographs)

Not one to say no to a scrap, Lopes has confirmed that he’s right down to step up in a number of methods.

Bettering his putting expertise in recent times, Lopes reveals some pure pop in his punches and kicks. Doing a bit higher at staying over his ft, Lopes has made measurable strides since his early days of being a jiu-jitsu brawler.

Though Lopes’ aggressive instincts are nonetheless clearly intact, the 30-year-old Brazilian shows some stable straight punches that serve him nicely when coming ahead and countering kicks. Each time matched with a fellow orthodox opposition, Lopes will unleash crashing calf kicks typically arrange by his underrated lead hand.

Lopes also can strike potently off of collar ties, however will have to be cautious when closing in on Volkanovski.

An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby participant, Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward slugger who sometimes approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A pure athlete, Volkanovski reveals little problem when having to crash distance along with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes which were sometimes arrange off of prodding jabs.

Nonetheless, since incorporating the influences of Brad Riddell and his sister fitness center Metropolis Kickboxing, Volkanovski has sharpened his feints, footwork, and general putting fundamentals, measuring and shifting in house extra easily and on steadiness than earlier than. The 36-year-old Australian will now change up his mixture strategy, doing issues like main with stance-debasing kicks and ending off mixtures with an extended lead hand.

Volkanovski additionally has taken a few of the feinting swagger from his stablemates, displaying or throwing away sure pictures to land others with a much bigger image in thoughts.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Islam Makhachev (crimson gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovski (blue gloves) throughout UFC 284 at RAC Enviornment. (Jasmin Frank, USA TODAY Sports activities)

Contemplating that each males come from grappling bases, nobody ought to be shocked if this featherweight social gathering touches the ground in some unspecified time in the future.

Grappling for the reason that age of 5, Lopes is a lifelong martial artist who strikes on the ground like second nature.

An absolute nightmare in transitions, Lopes flows by the place and submission index quicker than any bogus AI program might replicate. Whether or not combining armbar and triangle threats or snatching up legs on an exit, Lopes is nice about preserving a high-to-low theme to his assaults.

In more moderen stretches of his profession, Lopes seems to have made an actual effort to shore up his wrestling, each defensively and offensively.

Not solely does Lopes have issues like clinch journeys or reactive pictures in his again pocket, however the Brazilian has additionally proven an upgraded capacity to defend and dictate motion from the clinch. Nonetheless, I’ll be curious to see how Lopes’ entries stack up in opposition to Volkanovski (ought to he elect to get offensive in that division).

Since reining in his aggression and preventing smarter, Volkanovski seems to be even tougher to meaningfully take down and management on account of his general consciousness of positioning – significantly in opposition to the fence.

Alex Volkanovski’s counter-grappling notes—love that he makes use of my favourite MMA getup: half guard to single-leg getups

Doesn’t reap the leg for further leverage however nails the essential element of LOW underhooks BELOW the ass, as this helps thwart front-choke counters/permits re-wrestling pic.twitter.com/emQOSraVXw

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023

Even when taken down, Volkanovski shows stable head positioning and sensible particulars like a low underhook (limiting front-choke counters) when seeking to execute issues like half-guard getups.

Even when taken down by Chad Mendes and rear-mounted, Volkanovski’s deliberate attain throughout/framing creates the phantasm of additional again publicity/management (therefore opening up opps to slip again into half-guard) as the fundamental theme/muscle reminiscence from above additionally will get the job completed right here: pic.twitter.com/NehnXtPItc

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023

Offensively, Volkanovski appears to remain per stated tendencies, showing to desire extra environment friendly choices like inside journeys from the clinch versus the standard double and single-legs in opposition to the fence that he used to favor. And when Volkanovski can set up high place, he embraces his honey badger-like sensibilities by staking claims to positions by punishing strikes and rides.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes odds

The oddsmakers and the general public barely favor the previous champion, itemizing Volkanovski -132 and Lopes +104 by way of FanDuel.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes prediction, decide

Between the respectable attract of Lopes and the looming statistic of fighters failing to win titles previous 35 within the lighter weight courses, it’s no shock to see MMA bettors backing the Brazilian on the betting window.

Not solely do MMA gamblers are likely to favor youthful athletes, however in addition they worth measurements like peak greater than a girl in her early 20s on Tinder does.

I imply, this card is jam-packed with extra confirmed merchandise which can be shorter and older dealing with off in opposition to youthful, bigger opportunists – and in each struggle public cash is pouring in on the lesser-proven merchandise.

Now, the unhappy factor is that that is half and parcel with the struggle sport as individuals who blindly guess in opposition to growing old fighters seemingly make out okay, most of the time (circle of life and all). Nonetheless, there are nonetheless issues which can be too tough to look previous.

Other than it seemingly being straightforward for individuals to overlook that Volkanovski was thought of the highest pound-for-pound fighter not too way back, he has additionally confirmed himself in latter rounds along with his capacity to each regulate and push the tempo. Lopes, alternatively, has proven to flag in three-round affairs if he’s unable to discover a end.

Don’t get me mistaken: Lopes is a confirmed finisher who has the instruments to harm Volkanovski.

Whether or not Lopes is launching arduous calf kicks to disrupt Volkanovski’s stance or is attempting to duplicate the uppercut success that Max Holloway present in his sequence with the Australian, he might membership and sub his approach to a UFC championship.

The potential downside, nevertheless, is that Lopes’ hardwiring to return with energy might begin to hit a tough level of diminishing returns in opposition to a fighter like Volkanovski if he’s not capable of finding a end. And if Volkanovski can dictate jab and leg-kick visitors like I believe he can, then don’t be stunned to see his proper hand (from each stances) begin to discover its residence with regularity given Lopes’ frequent culprits.

I don’t doubt Lopes’ expertise or the truth that he’ll probably be on the precise facet of some huge moments on this struggle. But when he can’t discover a end by the 7-8 minute mark, then I consider his on-paper possibilities at success will begin to drastically diminish.

As per regular, I’ll be formally siding with the extra confirmed product to outlive the early scares and draw back down the stretch by reminding the plenty of his vicious ground-and-pound sport.

The decide is Volkanovski to pressure a stoppage by strikes in Spherical 4.

Prediction: Volkanovski inside the space

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes begin time, the place to observe

As the principle occasion, Volkanovski and Lopes are anticipated to make their walks to the octagon at roughly 12:30 a.m. ET. The struggle streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.